This could be a longer list but 10 is a nice round number. I have been dreading 2024 since at least 2022 for a number of reasons. I will outline them here and over the coming days and weeks go deeper into each one and why I feel this way. I guess this is in no particular order.
The US elections
The upcoming 2024 U.S. elections make me very nervous. The polarization within the American political landscape and the increasing division between the parties and their supporters makes me wonder whether either side will actually concede an election defeat. And that could lead to some very nasty riots - and they have a lot of guns in America. It is not impossible to envisage a civil war, in fact Alex Garland has already done so in his upcoming film called Civil War. I think it is going to be a very scary movie and of course, an event like that would have global implications on a scale that no-one alive has ever seen.
2. The UK elections
On a smaller scale for sure but the conservatives are going to get obliterated at this election. They thoroughly deserve it and simply cannot be allowed to run the country after the complete mess they have made of it over the last 13 years. They are bankrupt of ideas, incompetent on a Post Office scale with zero credibility. There is nothing they can say to the electorate that will make any of us believe them. How can they campaign about what they are going to do with another term after completely failing to deliver anything in any of the last ones?
But a pasting this vicious leaves Parliament with no opposition and the worry I have is that the Labour party is just as incompetent and bankrupt of ideas as the Conservatives - they may even be worse. And that means they will get any half-baked policy through. And we don't know what policies they are because they don't need any to beat the Tories.
The Labour front bench is a head-in-hands event. I will delve further into this team over the coming weeks but Keir Starmer is a complete lettuce and Angela Raynor is positively toxic. I have nothing against Northerners - I am a Northerner. But type in 'mouthy northern monkey with a penchant for Vodka cocktails' and Google will serve you up an old image of Angela Raynor from the Readers Wives section of Fiesta.
Yes, I am showing my age with that one (any maybe my old reading habits :o) but can you imagine 'Mr Wobble' and 'No Knickers' Raynor up against Putin and Jinping?
3. Iran, Israel and the middle East
There is so much to unpack here but its not in the scope of this post. Just to say that its all bad. Iran is currently attacking Israel, The USA and the West through its proxies and it seems to me the lack of action from the West is just making them bolder.
And they are enriching Uranium. Once these guys get a nuke it changes the ballgame for everyone, everywhere. Everyone in the middle east will have to have them, Saudia Arabia will definitely need them to counter the Iranians. Iran is governed by medieval, religious fanatics, Saudi Arabia is run by a vast family of trillionaire dictators terrorized by their own medieval Islamic fanatics. This is a terrifying prospect. Religious fanatics are not known for their logical, reasoned and restrained foreign policies.
4. China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and the new axis of evil
Well, you might not see it that way if you live in those countries, although I suspect a significant proportion of the populations there (bar North Korea who don't get out much) might actually agree.
These four are up to no good. They are pretty much out in the open with trying to challenge the world order and I have no problem with that premise. As long as what they are proposing to replace it with is better than what we've got. The thing is, as bad as things are in the West, at the moment I don't fancy swapping it out any time soon for this rabble.
But all we can be sure of is that they will be doing their level best to increase membership to BRICS, covertly interfering in all the upcoming democratic elections in 2024, funding conflict and sewing division wherever it might challenge our interests. Such as...
5. Mass immigration
Not just in the UK but into every Western Nation in Europe and America. Mass, uncontrolled immigration from third world countries with no background checks on who is entering. Uninvited guests that want to move in and live in our societies. Yes, of course we need some immigration to do the jobs we all hate. But do we need thousands of young, angry, dispossessed men from war-torn countries that share none of our culture or values? Is that a good idea? I think not.
If you just take the emotion out of it and do the maths this isn't going to work. If 1.5 million people have come to Britain in the last 2 years alone, then when did we build the 400,000 houses to shelter them? Or the 400 new schools to educate them let alone the hospitals to look after them and the roads to get them where they need to go.
And then there is the cultural dimension. We are straying into Racissmmmmm!!!!! territory here where everyone is very emotional and polarized. But let's assume that you want to preserve the cultural traditions and beliefs of the host nations (there is no guarantee that there is this intention as far as I can determine). In that case if you introduce 1.5 million people from other cultures in 2 years you have literally no chance of assimilating them. It is human nature for like-minded people to stick together but in wider society it forms enclaves and mono-cultures. This is not conjecture, this has already happened in many cities across the UK. This video about Oldham is 7 years old and several million immigrants ago.
6. The rise of Islam in the UK and the West
After watching the marches that still continue to this day I am very worried about the rise of Islam in the UK and throughout the West. In the USA they are only just starting to see the issues we have been facing in Europe.
If I was under any illusions about the compatibility of Islam and the enlightened, liberal democracies of Europe, I was given a massive wake up call watching what has been unfurling in my home city of London over the past few months.
Regardless of what took place or is taking place in far flung countries of the world, it is disgusting and frightening that one group of citizens have been threatening and attacking another group of citizens in the UK.
I am not just having a go at Islam. I have never had any compassion for any religion, I have always felt it is an indoctrinated, collective madness to believe in such things. But what frightens me most is that the cohesive and malicious actions and rhetoric emanating from this community and the way it has been handled by the authorities and the Police. It might be more accurate to say not handled. I will elaborate in another post but if you allow people to threaten violence with impunity on other members of the same society, for that to go unchallenged for whatever reason, then you have just entered the Twilight Zone of 1933.
That ended well.
7. The rise of Islamic fundamentalism in West Africa
This doesn't get much press coverage in the UK. A few murmurings of the French forces getting involved and booted out of West African countries here and there doesn't really stoke the passions of the average Westerner, what with the Ukraine and the Middle East issues. But there is a serious problem brewing in West Africa with all the potential to spread into another massive regional conflict.
Groups like Boko Haram and other jihadist organizations in the Sahel region are murdering citizens in Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Senegal and Mauritania. Mostly countries only talked about during the World Cup football tournaments and well under the radar of the average Westerner outside of them.
But they are being attacked by another bunch of medieval religious fanatics bent on establishing more Islamic Caliphates and subjecting millions of people to the undemocratic and highly restrictive Sharia Laws (I am being restrained here, aren't I?).
8. Russia and Ukraine war
Almost boring now this one, isn't it? Completely over-shadowed by the much more exciting ideological, religious squabbles in the middle east. But this one is a low burner, likely to get completely out of hand. Now the initial shock has worn off the West and the States have become complacent. Some Republicans in the States are actively campaigning to withdraw financial and military support for Ukraine. I am not an expert this seems to me a colossal mistake.
Putin is never going to give up. He has just signed up for $100 Billion of additional military spending which is around one third of the entire Government budget. While NATO in Europe is fannying around the Russians are transforming their economy into a war machine. NATO has around 5000 tanks in Europe and half of them are Turkish, so there is no guarantee that they will be fighting on NATOs side in any conflict with Russia.
Despite losing a shit load of tanks in the Ukraine Russia made 2100 tanks in 2023 alone. I don't know if they are all that and a bag of chips but they don't need to be if you have got vastly more of them than your enemy. That's how they defeated the Nazis.
So, if they defeat Ukraine what is to stop them rolling over to the Baltics? NATO? Hmm, I don't fancy it. Putin is a shrewd, calculating, psychopath. He has and still is making mincemeat of the liberal, hand wringing, peace-loving, pleading beatnik politicians of Europe. Even if he doesn't decide to go on a rampage with his soon to be battle hardened, battle-tested, tactically experienced in modern drone warfare troops with shiny new military equipment, he will certainly have negotiated himself the whip hand over the cowering cowards of the EU.
I am not sure if anyone has war-gamed how far into Europe Russia would get if they teamed up with the Turks. A truly terrifying prospect and one that I would be considering if I was Putin or Erdogan.
9. Guyana and Venezuela
Yet another potential regional conflict, this time emanating over the Essequibo region in Guyana, that could spill over into South America and right on The USAs back door. If they think there are problems with immigrants and refugees coming through the Southern border now, just wait for when / if it kicks off here.
The last thing the West needs is another ally of the axis of evil starting another conflict and especially one so close to the States that will surely waste military resources and intellectual firepower that is better spent elsewhere.
More greedy, failed communist countries banging on about colonialism and claiming territory that no-one gave a toss for until they found 11 Billion barrels of oil under it.
But don't panic Captain Mannering, Britain has sent a patrol boat to rattle the sabre, so that should frighten the natives into submission....
10. China and Taiwan
Well its the biggie. The invasion that will fire the starting pistol for WW3. Can't see it happening this year but anything is possible. I think China has a some financial pain to explore fully, perhaps leading to some civil unrest before Xi Jinping needs a giant distraction to keep the Chinese population from throwing off the yolk of the CCP.
So that's the list down to ten. I hope I am wrong on all fronts and that we can all go back to the 90s but 2024 has all the makings of a one of those years that get talked about in the history books for all the wrongs reasons.
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